French poll shows sharp drop in support for Le Pen and Bardella ahead of 2027 race

The National Rally's (Rassemblement National, RN) two leading figures for the 2027 French presidential election, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, both recorded sharp declines in a monthly favourability poll published on October 8, 2026. The survey, carried out by polling institute Cluster17 for the weekly magazine Le Point, is a personality barometer that measures public approval of leading political figures rather than voting intentions.

Bardella, president of the RN, dropped from 35% favourable opinion in September to 30% in October, a fall of 5 points, according to the results published on Cluster17's website. Le Pen, the party's historic leader, fell from 38% to 34%, a decline of 4 points. Despite the drop, Le Pen kept the top ranking in the barometer, while Bardella remained second.

Where the losses came from

Cluster17's breakdown by voters' party preference shows the two RN figures lost ground differently. Bardella's favourability fell by 16 points among voters of the conservative Les Républicains, by 9 points among supporters of Éric Zemmour's Reconquête, and by 5 points among voters of the presidential Renaissance camp.

Within their own electorates, both leaders proved more resilient: Le Pen kept 94% approval among people who voted for her in the 2022 presidential election, a loss of only 3 points, while Bardella's approval among people who voted for the RN list in the 2024 European election stood at 85%, down 8 points, according to Cluster17.

Other figures tested in the same survey

The barometer also tracked other leading politicians. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of the left-wing La France Insoumise, rose to 26% favourable opinion, placing him third and continuing a recovery noted by Cluster17 and titrespresse.com as other figures' ratings fell. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu stood at 26% as well, in fourth place, while President Emmanuel Macron registered 17% favourable opinion. Former prime ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal also fell, with Philippe dropping from third to twelfth place and Attal from ninth to twentieth, according to Cluster17's ranking.

Why it matters for the 2027 race

Le Pen was convicted in March 2025 of misusing European Parliament funds and was initially barred from running for office for five years; she appealed, and an appeals court verdict was due on July 7, 2026, France 24 reported at the time. Both Le Pen and Bardella have been treated as likely RN candidates for the April 2027 presidential election, and surveys earlier in 2026 had shown the RN candidate leading first-round voting-intention polls with roughly 31% to 36% of the vote, according to France 24.

Cluster17 is a French polling institute; its personality barometer measures favourability toward individual politicians each month and is distinct from voting-intention polls, which ask respondents how they would vote in an election. Cluster17 titled its October publication a sharp decline ("net recul") for Bardella and Le Pen.

What is not yet known

The October barometer does not include a first-round voting-intention figure for 2027 alongside the favourability drop, so it is not possible from this survey alone to say whether the decline in approval would translate into fewer first-round votes for Le Pen or Bardella. Cluster17 did not publish the margin of error or full sample size in the material reviewed for this article. This article also does not cover the outcome of Le Pen's July 2026 appeal, which is outside the sources used here.