David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, left the Republicans party in March 2026 to run for the French presidency as a self-described liberal under his own party, Nouvelle Énergie. His campaign has drawn attention less for poll numbers — which remain in the low single digits — than for a sudden surge in social-media followers and betting-market odds since late summer 2026.
David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and president of the Association of Mayors of France (AMF), confirmed on France 2 on 31 March 2026 that he was leaving Les Républicains (LR) to run for the 2027 French presidential election, according to Public Sénat. He launched his campaign under Nouvelle Énergie, a liberal, right-wing party he founded, as reported by franceinfo.
Why he left Les Républicains
Lisnard told France 2 that he was quitting LR because the party had not resolved what he called its ambiguities toward Macronism, Public Sénat reported. He pointed specifically to LR ministers remaining in Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government after the pension reform was suspended, and to the party's rejection of an open primary to pick a single right-wing presidential candidate.
I quit LR because the party hasn't resolved its ambiguities, notably toward Macronism.
— David Lisnard, France 2, 31 March 2026, via Public Sénat
Lisnard had argued for a primary spanning the center-right to Sarah Knafo's Reconquête, warning that without one, competing individual candidacies would split the right-wing vote, Public Sénat reported. Bruno Retailleau, LR president and a rival candidate, said he did not understand the decision and suggested it had been prepared over weeks or months, accusing Lisnard of setting up a separate political structure of his own while still calling him a friend.
A viral slogan and a sudden online surge
The campaign's visibility changed in late August 2026 with the phrase 'il se passe quelque chose' ("something is happening"), first used by supporters online before being adopted by campaign activists and eventually by Lisnard himself, according to franceinfo. Within about a month, his Instagram following roughly doubled and his TikTok following quadrupled, franceinfo and LCP both reported, with LCP citing growth to roughly 400,000 Instagram followers and 80,000 on TikTok.
LCP described hundreds of short videos portraying Lisnard as a prospective national savior, and noted that major French outlets such as Le Figaro and BFMTV began covering the phenomenon, which pushed him into discussion alongside more established contenders. Lisnard's party also said its membership rose from about 30,000 to 55,000 in a single month, per LCP.
Asked about the strategy, Lisnard told franceinfo that the goal was to raise his public profile by stating ideas and commenting on current events, part of a coordinated online push meant to establish his candidacy before the end of 2026.
What the polls and betting markets actually show
Formal opinion polling tells a more modest story. An Ifop poll from 2 October 2026 put Lisnard at 3.5% in first-round voting intentions, a figure both franceinfo and LCP cited; a later poll put him at 6%, franceinfo reported. Pollster Jean-Daniel Lévy of Toluna Harris Interactive noted that 15% of French respondents say they could vote for Lisnard when several names are presented without an exclusive choice — a share he described as fairly weak, and lower than for Retailleau — and observed that several institutes do not even include Lisnard's name in some surveys, citing the limited size of France's liberal political space.
The clearest jump has come on unregulated prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, where Lisnard's implied odds of winning the presidency rose from about 3% in early September 2026 to 15.6% by 11 October 2026, ranking him third among candidates on those platforms, franceinfo reported. LCP noted that on Polymarket, which is not legally available in France, Lisnard was at one point priced higher than Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mathematician Arthur Charpentier, quoted by franceinfo, cautioned that prices on illiquid, unregulated markets with few bettors can be heavily swayed by relatively small amounts of money, and academics told LCP that online visibility does not necessarily translate into votes.
David Lisnard's standing: polls vs. prediction markets (2026)
Metric
Early September 2026
Early-to-mid October 2026
Ifop poll (first round)
—
3.5% (2 Oct); later poll: 6%
Polymarket/Kalshi implied odds
~3%
15.6% (11 Oct), 3rd place
How his liberalism is described
LCP reported that Lisnard positions himself as a liberal candidate whose program echoes the anti-bureaucracy ideology associated with Argentine president Javier Milei, citing a January op-ed in which Lisnard praised Argentina's economic results and set out what he called a coherent vision condemning "wokisme", statism, collectivism and egalitarianism. Political scientist Raphaël Morisset, of George Washington University, told LCP that Lisnard's version of liberalism is economically focused on reducing the welfare state while being illiberal on political and societal matters.
Communication researchers quoted by both franceinfo and LCP said it remains unclear whether the online attention reflects a genuine shift in public opinion or a deliberate, low-cost amplification strategy by supporters. Thierry Devars, a media researcher at Celsa cited by LCP, compared the situation to the play Waiting for Godot: something is happening, he said, but it remains unclear what.
Questions
Who is David Lisnard?
He is the mayor of Cannes and president of the Association of Mayors of France. He founded the liberal, right-wing party Nouvelle Énergie, according to franceinfo and Public Sénat.
When did David Lisnard announce his presidential candidacy?
He confirmed his candidacy and his departure from Les Républicains on France 2 on 31 March 2026, Public Sénat reported.
How well is Lisnard polling for the 2027 French presidential election?
An Ifop poll on 2 October 2026 put him at 3.5% in first-round voting intentions; a subsequent poll gave him 6%, according to franceinfo. Some pollsters do not test his name at all, citing the small size of France's liberal electorate.
Why is David Lisnard suddenly getting attention online?
A viral slogan, 'something is happening,' spread on TikTok and Instagram from late August 2026, roughly doubling his Instagram followers and quadrupling his TikTok followers within about a month, per franceinfo and LCP.
Do prediction markets show Lisnard as a serious contender?
On Polymarket and Kalshi, his implied odds rose from about 3% in early September 2026 to 15.6% by 11 October 2026, ranking third among candidates, franceinfo reported — but experts cautioned these unregulated, illiquid markets can be moved by modest sums of money.
How the world is telling it
FrenchFrench outlets (franceinfo, Public Sénat, LCP) treat Lisnard's rise primarily as a media and social-network phenomenon, repeatedly questioning whether online buzz and prediction-market odds reflect real electoral strength, and giving space to rival Bruno Retailleau's skepticism about the timing of Lisnard's break from Les Républicains.
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