Hurricane Nolo regained major-hurricane status on October 3, 2026, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) said in its 5 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time advisory. The storm, a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, was centered near 23.4°N, 175.1°W, about 200 miles south-southwest of Lisianski Island and 320 miles west-southwest of Maro Reef, moving west at 20 mph with a minimum central pressure of 957 millibars.
A storm that has strengthened and weakened repeatedly
Nolo first threatened Hawaii's Big Island in late September as a tropical storm, prompting Hawaiian Airlines and Southwest Airlines to cancel at least 21 flights into and out of Hilo on September 25 and 26, according to Hawaii News Now. Hawaiian Airlines pulled aircraft out of Hilo overnight to keep them away from the weather, while American, Delta and United offered travel waivers for the affected weekend.
After weakening, the system regained hurricane strength on October 2 while passing through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, reaching 85 mph winds that day, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported. Forecasters at the time cited decreasing wind shear and warm ocean water as factors giving the storm more than a 50% chance of rapid intensification, which occurred within 24 hours as winds climbed to 115 mph.
Current threat to Hawaii and its remote monument
As of the October 3 advisory, the CPHC said there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Hawaii. A tropical storm warning that had covered the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument — a federally protected area of islands, atolls and reefs stretching from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski Island — was discontinued as Nolo moved west of the area, according to the Star-Advertiser.
The hurricane's forecast track keeps its center passing south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, west of Maro Reef, without making a direct approach to the main populated islands. The CPHC noted that large swell from the storm could still inundate some low-lying atolls in the monument.
Why Nolo will soon be called a typhoon
Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date Line by midday Sunday Hawaii time, according to both the CPHC and weather.com. Crossing that line does not change the storm's physical characteristics, but it does change its official classification: once a system crosses from the Central Pacific into the Western Pacific basin, forecasting responsibility shifts from the CPHC to the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and the same storm becomes a typhoon rather than a hurricane. Weather.com noted that a storm must maintain sustained winds of at least 74 mph to qualify as a typhoon, and would be classified a super typhoon if winds exceed 150 mph. Similar basin-crossing name changes occurred with Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006, Genevieve in 2014 and Dora in 2023.
- Name stays the same (Nolo) across the basin change
- Classification changes from hurricane to typhoon at the Date Line
- Forecasting authority shifts from CPHC to JMA/JTWC
- Must sustain 74 mph winds to keep typhoon status
What comes next for Hawaii
The CPHC's October 3 advisory said intensity fluctuations were expected to continue for Nolo over the next couple of days before a general weakening trend begins on Monday. Separately, the Star-Advertiser reported that even as Nolo moves away, a different weather pattern — described by forecasters as an early wet-season type of system — was expected to develop and could bring heavy rain to Kauai and Oahu from Wednesday through Thursday, unrelated to Nolo's own track.
Hurricane Nolo intensity timeline| Date | Max sustained winds | Category/Status | Source |
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| Sept 25-26, 2026 | Tropical storm force | Tropical storm; 21 Hilo flights canceled | Hawaii News Now |
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| Oct 2, 2026, 5:15 p.m. HST | 85 mph | Reached hurricane strength (Category 1) | Honolulu Star-Advertiser |
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| Oct 3, 2026, 5:00 p.m. HST | 115 mph | Category 3 hurricane | CPHC / NOAA |
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| Forecast: ~midday Sun. (Oct 4) | — | Crosses Date Line, becomes Typhoon Nolo | CPHC; weather.com |
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| Forecast: Monday onward | — | General weakening trend expected | CPHC |
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Questions
- Is Hurricane Nolo expected to hit Hawaii's main islands directly?
- No direct hit is forecast. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's October 3 track keeps Nolo's center passing south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, west of Maro Reef, and no watches or warnings were in effect for the main islands at that time.
- Why does Hurricane Nolo become a typhoon?
- Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date Line into the Western Pacific basin. Per weather.com, crossing that line changes a storm's official classification from hurricane to typhoon and shifts forecasting responsibility to the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, even though the storm itself is unchanged.
- How strong is Hurricane Nolo right now?
- As of the October 3, 2026, 5 p.m. HST advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Nolo had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane.
- Has Hurricane Nolo already caused disruptions in Hawaii?
- Yes. In late September, as a weaker tropical storm, Nolo caused at least 21 flight cancellations at Hilo Airport on the Big Island, with Hawaiian Airlines and Southwest Airlines affected, according to Hawaii News Now.
- What areas were under warning because of Nolo?
- A tropical storm warning covered the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski Island including Maro Reef, but the Star-Advertiser reported this warning was discontinued once Nolo moved west of the monument.
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