Black Friday 2026: Exact Dates, Expected Deals and How to Shop Smart

Black Friday 2026 lands on Friday, November 27, the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, according to Adobe Digital Insights' 2026 holiday forecast. Cyber Monday follows three days later, on November 30, closing out what Adobe calls "Cyber Week" — the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.

How much shoppers are expected to spend

Adobe projects U.S. consumers will spend $12.9 billion online on Black Friday 2026, a 9.2% increase from the prior year. That is a faster growth rate than Cyber Monday, which Adobe still expects to be the single biggest online shopping day of the season at $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year over year. Across the full November 1–December 31 holiday period, Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in U.S. online sales, up 6.7% year over year, with Cyber Week alone (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) accounting for $47.5 billion.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's largest trade group, separately forecasts that total U.S. holiday retail sales — covering both online and in-store spending in November and December — will reach roughly $1.014 trillion, a 4.2% increase over the $972 billion recorded in 2025. NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in the group's release, cited by Yahoo Finance, that retailers expect consumers to prioritize the holiday season while staying mindful of their budgets, and that stores are ready to meet that demand with competitive pricing and options for every budget. NRF also estimates inflation will account for about half of that spending growth, and that retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers.

Which categories see the deepest discounts

According to Adobe's forecast, Black Friday is expected to be the single best day of the season to buy several categories, with discounts reaching up to 23% off list price on TVs and apparel, 29% on toys, and 18% on appliances and furniture. Adobe also projects peak discounts of up to 30% across electronics generally during Cyber Week, with the deepest electronics markdowns typically landing on Cyber Monday. Earlier in the season, discounts build gradually: Adobe's data shows roughly 14% off in early November and up to 21% off in the days just before Thanksgiving.

Deals outlet Valet Magazine, tracking early markdowns from retailers including Alex Crane, J.Crew, Todd Snyder, Abercrombie & Fitch, Nike, Banana Republic and Polo Ralph Lauren, reported discounts of 20–50% already live in mid-October on fall wardrobe staples, winter outerwear, grooming products, technology and home goods — well ahead of the traditional Black Friday weekend.

How to shop smart: a step-by-step approach

1. Start tracking prices now. Valet Magazine recommends tools such as CamelCamelCamel and SlickDeals to monitor a product's price history before buying, so a "discount" can be checked against what it actually cost weeks earlier.
2. Expect early deals, not just a single day. Valet Magazine reports that some discounts already available are comparable to typical Black Friday markdowns, meaning waiting until November 27 could mean missing similarly good prices.
3. Match your purchase to the category's peak-discount window. Based on Adobe's data, toys and apparel tend to hit their deepest discounts on Black Friday itself, while electronics markdowns often peak on Cyber Monday, November 30.
4. Watch for flash and lightning deals during Cyber Week. Adobe forecasts $807 million in Black Friday buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) spending, part of a broader $21.3 billion BNPL forecast for the November–December season (up 6.6% year over year), pointing to heavy promotional activity around fast-moving, time-limited offers.
5. Budget for both online and in-store shopping. With NRF forecasting total holiday sales near $1.014 trillion versus Adobe's $275.1 billion online-only figure, a large share of 2026 holiday spending will still happen in physical stores, so comparing both channels before buying can widen the options.
6. Check sign-up requirements and fine print. Early-access sales often require an email or loyalty-program sign-up, a detail Valet Magazine flags as easy to miss when comparing listed prices.

Why Black Friday is growing faster than Cyber Monday

Adobe's 9.2% projected growth for Black Friday, compared with 6.2% for Cyber Monday, is attributed in its forecast to Black Friday carrying the single-deepest discounts across the most product categories this year. Adobe separately projects AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites will rise 130% year over year this season, with the largest increases expected on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday specifically — a sign more shoppers are using AI tools to compare prices before buying.

Where the term Black Friday comes from

The phrase predates the modern sales event. According to Wikipedia, "Black Friday" first appeared in a 1951 journal article describing workers calling in sick the day after Thanksgiving to extend their weekend; Philadelphia police later used the term for the heavy shopping traffic and congestion downtown. Retailers only began publicly reframing the day in the 1980s as the point when stores moved from operating at a loss ("in the red") to turning a profit ("in the black"). The event has since spread well beyond the United States, with Wikipedia noting adaptations such as "White Friday" in Egypt and Libya and "Blessed Friday" in Pakistan.