Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by four to six points in the two polls released after Brazil's October 4 first round, ahead of the October 25 runoff. Both the Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys put Flávio's advantage outside the margin of error, reversing pre-first-round polling that had shown the two men essentially tied.
Brazil heads into the final weeks of its 2026 presidential campaign with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first polls taken after the October 4 first round. The runoff is set for October 25.
How the first round ended
With nearly all votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) took about 47% of valid votes against 44.9% for Lula of the Workers' Party (PT), according to Al Jazeera's reporting on the official count; NBC News rounded Lula's share to 45%. Since neither passed the 50% threshold, the two advance to a second round. Turnout was lower than usual: abstention reached 21.08%, the highest since 1998, Americas Quarterly reported.
The result surprised pollsters. Most pre-election surveys had Lula finishing ahead in the first round; instead Flávio led by roughly two points. Political scientist Rafael Favetti told Al Jazeera the outcome reflected 'protest votes' that consolidated earlier than expected.
What the post-first-round polls show
Two pollsters have published runoff numbers since October 4. Datafolha, interviewing 2,520 people from October 6-8, found Flávio at 52% to Lula's 48% of valid votes (49%-45% of total votes, with 2 points margin of error), according to O Povo's report on the survey, registered with Brazil's electoral court under number BR-02949/2026. AtlasIntel, polling 5,026 respondents from October 3-8 with a 1-point margin of error, put Flávio at 52.8% to Lula's 47.2% in valid votes, Metropoles reported, citing registration BR-03663/2026.
Second-round voting-intention polls, Brazil 2026
Poll / dates
Lula (PT)
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
Margin of error
AtlasIntel, pre-first-round (to Oct. 3)
50.1%
49.9%
±1 pt
Datafolha, Sept. 22-23
47%
45%
±2 pt
Datafolha, Oct. 6-8 (post-1st round)
48%
52%
±2 pt
AtlasIntel, Oct. 3-8 (post-1st round)
47.2%
52.8%
±1 pt
Both post-first-round surveys put Flávio's lead outside the margin of error, a contrast with the technical ties recorded by Datafolha in September, when Lula held a narrow 47%-45% edge, and by AtlasIntel's own survey taken just before the first round, when Lula led 50.1% to 49.9%, according to Metropoles. As of October 6, Quaest had not yet registered a runoff survey with Brazil's electoral court, Brasil de Fato reported, though further polls from other institutes were expected before the vote.
Why the numbers moved
Al Jazeera's analysis of the first-round surprise points to several factors now shaping the runoff. Political scientist Carlos Pereira said some voters for smaller right-wing candidates made a 'strategic choice' to back Flávio directly rather than wait for a second round. A separate alleged banking-fraud case involving Banco Master, which touched figures across the political spectrum including a Supreme Court justice seen as aligned with Lula, also appears to have moved opinion: a Datafolha poll cited by Al Jazeera found 34% of respondents associated the scandal more with the left against 27% with the right.
Protest-vote consolidation behind Flávio in the first round, per analyst Rafael Favetti
Strategic early coalescing of right-wing voters, per political scientist Carlos Pereira
Fallout from the Banco Master alleged banking-fraud case, which polling found voters linked more to the left
Broader right-wing gains in Congress and governorships beyond the presidential race
Campaign outlook before October 25
Flávio's PL emerged as the largest party in both chambers of Congress, with 121 lower-house seats and 28 Senate seats, Americas Quarterly reported, giving him a stronger legislative base than Lula going into the runoff. Analysts quoted by the outlet were divided on how durable that advantage is.
Flávio Bolsonaro will be the next president of Brazil unless the so-called 'bomba' is real.
— Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, on Flávio Bolsonaro's position after the first round
Winter also said Flávio would likely seek a congressional deal on amnesty for his father. Al Jazeera reported the elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted over an attempt to overturn Lula's 2022 election win, while Americas Quarterly described him as currently under house arrest. Economist Alessandra Ribeiro of Tendências Consultoria cautioned that 'the risk of disappointment is significant' given tension between the right's agenda and fiscal constraints, Americas Quarterly reported.
Both candidates have avoided major televised debates so far, NBC News reported, with the campaign instead centered on cost-of-living pressure, household debt and crime. Lula, seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term at age 80, told supporters after the first round that 'what is at stake is the future of Brazil,' per NBC News, while acknowledging he had expected to win outright in round one.
Questions
Who is currently ahead in polls for Brazil's presidential runoff?
In the two polls published after the October 4 first round, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula da Silva: 52%-48% in Datafolha's October 6-8 survey and 52.8%-47.2% in AtlasIntel's October 3-8 survey, both outside their margins of error.
When is Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff?
The second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026, after neither Flávio Bolsonaro (about 47%) nor Lula (44.9%-45%, depending on the outlet) reached the 50% threshold needed to win outright on October 4, according to Al Jazeera and NBC News.
Why did the polls shift so much after the first round?
Analysts cited by Al Jazeera point to protest votes and strategic early consolidation behind Flávio among right-wing voters, plus fallout from the Banco Master alleged banking-fraud scandal, which polling showed voters associated more with the political left than the right.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a Brazilian senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who Al Jazeera reported is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of trying to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula; Americas Quarterly described the elder Bolsonaro as currently under house arrest.
Are more polls coming before the runoff?
Datafolha and AtlasIntel had already published runoff surveys, on October 8 and 9 respectively. As of October 6, Quaest had not yet registered a second-round poll with Brazil's electoral court, according to Brasil de Fato, which reported further surveys from other institutes were expected before the October 25 vote.
How the world is telling it
PortugueseBrazilian outlets such as Brasil de Fato, O Povo and Metropoles cover the runoff largely as a horse race, detailing each pollster's exact electoral-court registration number, sample size and fieldwork dates, and linking the shift toward Flávio Bolsonaro to the Banco Master alleged banking-fraud scandal.
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