El Niño conditions have strengthened sharply through 2026, and both the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now say the event could rank among the most intense since global monitoring began in 1950.
In a statement issued on September 3, 2026, the WMO said there was a near-100% likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027 and would strengthen to "very strong" intensity, with impacts continuing into 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies."
Record ocean warmth behind the forecast
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in a diagnostic discussion issued September 10, 2026, put the chance of a "very strong" El Niño this fall and winter at greater than 90% — the agency's highest confidence level for the event to date — and gave a 75% probability that the October–December 2026 reading would exceed every El Niño since 1950. The Niño-3.4 index, the standard benchmark for the central Pacific, stood at +1.8°C in August 2026, according to the same NOAA discussion.
NOAA scientist Michelle L'Heureux said separately that there was a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong El Niño, the highest such likelihood to date, and that the agency put the probability of the event surpassing all previous El Niño records at 69%.
Expected regional impacts
El Niño shifts rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide by altering Pacific Ocean heat distribution. The WMO's September bulletin said above-normal temperatures were likely across nearly all land areas in the September–November 2026 window, alongside a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a generally warm Atlantic basin.
El Niño 2026–2027: reported regional effects| Region | Reported expected effect |
|---|
| U.S. Northeast | Warmer winter with more coastal snowfall; drier inland areas |
|---|
| U.S. South/Gulf Coast | Near- to below-average temperatures; wetter conditions |
|---|
| U.S. Southwest | Increased precipitation and southern Rockies snowfall |
|---|
| Alaska | Pronounced warming, reduced snowpack, drier conditions |
|---|
| Latin America/Caribbean | Potential losses equal to 2% of regional GDP; up to 4.8 million more people in poverty, per CAF |
|---|
NOAA's regional outlook, reported by ABC News, also points to warmer-than-average conditions across most of the continental United States this winter, with a 99.9% chance that 2026 ranks among the five warmest years on record globally.
Latin America mobilizes financing
On October 2, 2026, CAF — the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean — said it was making an initial $1 billion available to help governments in the region prepare for and respond to emergencies linked to the event, which some officials are calling a possible "super Niño." CAF executive president Sergio Díaz-Granados said the event had the potential to be the strongest in 100 years and threatened livelihoods, and that the bank was supporting both immediate needs and long-term priorities.
CAF estimated that an event of this magnitude could cause losses equivalent to 2% of regional GDP through damage to infrastructure, agriculture, livestock and fisheries, and could push roughly 4.8 million additional people into poverty across the continent, according to the bank's own figures reported by Infobae.
What is still uncertain
ENSO forecasts carry uncertainty months ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter peak. NOAA's own discussion notes the event's final strength will not be confirmed until the October–December and November–January three-month averages are calculated.
- WMO: near-100% chance El Niño persists through February 2027 (Sept. 3, 2026 statement)
- NOAA: >90% chance of a 'very strong' event this winter; 75% chance of exceeding all records back to 1950 for Oct–Dec 2026
- CAF: $1 billion initial financing pledged for Latin America and the Caribbean (Oct. 2, 2026)
- CAF estimate: up to 2% regional GDP loss and 4.8 million more people in poverty if the 'super Niño' scenario materializes
Questions
- What is El Niño and why is the 2026–2027 event significant?
- El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. The WMO and NOAA say the 2026–2027 event could become the strongest on record since monitoring began in 1950, based on ocean-temperature readings well above historical levels.
- How likely is it that El Niño will reach record strength?
- NOAA's September 10, 2026 outlook gave a greater-than-90% chance of a 'very strong' event this winter and a 75% chance the October–December 2026 reading would exceed every El Niño since 1950, according to the agency's Climate Prediction Center.
- What is CAF doing in response?
- On October 2, 2026, CAF — the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean — announced an initial $1 billion in financing, technical assistance and emergency support for countries in the region to prepare for and respond to possible El Niño-related disasters.
- When will El Niño peak and when does it end?
- The WMO said in September 2026 that the event would strengthen toward the end of 2026 and had a near-100% probability of continuing through February 2027, with impacts extending into that year.
- Which regions face the biggest risks?
- Reported risks vary by region: NOAA outlines warmer, drier conditions in parts of North America, while CAF projects regional GDP losses of up to 2% and millions more people in poverty across Latin America and the Caribbean if the event reaches 'super Niño' intensity.
This piece was prepared with artificial intelligence and passed an automated source check before publication. If you see an error, ask for a correction. Request a correction or reply · How we make this
