Gas vs Electricity vs Wood Pellets: Picking the Cheapest Heating This Winter

Choosing between gas, electricity and wood pellets for home heating is not just a matter of comparing the price per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of each fuel. The equipment burning or converting that fuel matters just as much, because a heat pump can turn 1 kWh of electricity into 3-4 kWh of usable heat, while a basic electric radiator turns 1 kWh into exactly 1 kWh of heat.

What it costs to produce the same amount of heat

Energy comparison site Selectra modelled the cost of producing 10,000 kWh of useful heat — roughly what a mid-sized French home needs for a winter — using French tariffs and fuel prices recorded in September and October 2026.

The electricity figure for the heat pump and for straight electric radiators is based on the French regulated 'Base' tariff for a 9 kVA contract set on August 1, 2026, at €0.1985 per kWh. The gas figure uses the October 2026 reference price of €0.14557 per kWh including tax, plus a €360.79 annual subscription. Selectra notes the gas reference price was still climbing in late 2026, with November estimated around 8.3% higher than October. The pellet price of €431 per tonne was the market average on September 25, 2026, up from a second-quarter 2026 index of €388 per tonne.

Seven steps to find your own cheapest option

1. Work out how much heat your home actually needs in kWh per year, using past bills or an energy audit, before comparing any fuel prices.
2. Look up the exact price you pay per kWh for each fuel available at your address — your gas tariff, your electricity tariff, and the delivered price per tonne for pellets — rather than relying on national averages.
3. Check the efficiency of the equipment, not just the fuel price. A heat pump with a seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP) of 3 to 4 delivers several kWh of heat per kWh of electricity, while electric radiators deliver a 1:1 ratio, according to Richard Mazigh, founder of French heating-equipment company Airton.
4. In the UK, a comparison by HomeEnergyQuotes found that air-to-air heat pumps typically run at a SCOP of 3.0 to 4.0; using 3.5 as a working figure, the effective cost of heat falls to about 7.5 pence per kWh, well below the full tariff rate charged for electric radiators. That comparison covers heat pumps versus electric radiators, not gas boilers — worth checking against your own installer's quoted SCOP.
5. Factor in this winter's fuel-price direction where you live: the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects households heating mainly with natural gas or propane to spend less than last winter, while electricity-heated and heating-oil-heated households are expected to spend more.
6. Fix draughts and insulation before switching fuels or equipment. Mazigh compares an efficient heater in a poorly insulated home to filling a bathtub that is leaking — the equipment cannot make up for heat lost through walls, roofs and windows.
7. Lower your baseline temperature where you can: Mazigh estimates each degree Celsius removed from the thermostat saves about 7% on the heating bill, recommending around 19°C in living areas and 16-17°C in bedrooms rather than a flat 22°C throughout the home, which he calls one of the most frequent mistakes.

How this winter is shaping up by fuel

The EIA's October 2026 outlook projects that US households heating mainly with natural gas or propane — about half of all US households — will spend less this winter than last winter, helped by natural gas inventories entering the season roughly 2% above the five-year average. Electricity-heated households are expected to pay more. Heating-oil households — concentrated in the Northeast and about 3% of US homes — are projected to pay roughly 21% more; the EIA says a forecast wholesale price increase of more than 30% is only partly offset by milder expected Northeast weather, with tight distillate markets also a factor.

In the UK, HomeEnergyQuotes calculated that at the October 2026 Ofgem price cap of 26.32 pence per kWh, an electric radiator bills the full rate for every kWh of heat, while an air-to-air heat pump running at SCOP 3.5 delivers an effective cost of about 7.5 pence per kWh. For a living room needing 3,000 kWh of heat a year, that works out to £790 with electric radiators versus £226 with a heat pump — a £564 annual difference, against an installed cost of £1,200-£2,000 for a single-room system.

None of these figures are directly interchangeable across countries, since tariffs, grants and climates differ. The practical takeaway from all three sources is the same: compare the delivered cost of heat per kWh for your own equipment and tariff, not a generic fuel label, and check insulation and thermostat settings before assuming a fuel switch is the cheapest fix.