The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced on October 5, 2026 that annual consumer price inflation fell to 29.73% in September, down from 31.51% in August. It is the first time the headline rate has dropped below 30% since November 2021, a span officials put at 57 months.
Monthly inflation came in at 1.84%, the same pace recorded in August, according to TÜİK's bulletin as reported by Cumhuriyet. Economists surveyed by AA Finans had expected a monthly rise of 2.18% and an annual rate of about 30.16%, Cumhuriyet reported, so the actual figures undershot forecasts.
What Şimşek said
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek commented on the release, saying disinflation was broadening beyond food and that falling rent inflation pointed to continued momentum in the disinflation process, according to Hürriyet's Bigpara. He also said that without the impact of conflict-related costs, inflation would be about 7 percentage points lower this year, the same report said.
Breakdown by category
TÜİK data showed uneven disinflation across spending categories. Annual food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 27.6%, down 8.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Education inflation dropped 17.5 points to 48.6%. Rental inflation eased to 41.3%, down 27.8 points year-on-year, according to Hürriyet's Bigpara.
September 2026 inflation by category (annual change)| Category | September 2026 | Change vs a year earlier |
|---|
| Headline CPI | 29.73% | down from 31.51% (August) |
|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 27.6% | -8.4 points |
|---|
| Education | 48.6% | -17.5 points |
|---|
| Rent | 41.3% | -27.8 points |
|---|
Effect on rent increases
The 12-month average inflation rate, which Turkish law uses to cap rent increases on renewing residential and commercial leases, came out at 31.49% — described by Milliyet's Uzmanpara as the lowest 12-month average in 54 months. That figure will serve as the maximum legal rent increase for contracts renewed in October, after an earlier temporary 25% rent cap had already been lifted, according to the same report.
Independent estimate differs
ENAG, an independent research group that publishes an alternative consumer price index, put September's annual inflation at 46.61% and the monthly rise at 2.10%, according to Cumhuriyet. That compares with ENAG's own August estimate of 49.03% annual and 2.24% monthly, meaning both the official and the independent gauge showed inflation easing, though the two measures remain roughly 17 percentage points apart on the annual figure.
Central bank policy context
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 37% for five consecutive policy meetings, most recently in September 2026, as markets had anticipated, according to data compiled by Trading Economics. The same source said the bank cited the need to defend price stability and the lira's value in keeping the rate unchanged.
Finance Minister Şimşek had earlier said he expected annual inflation to move into the 20% range by the time January 2026 figures are published in February, as part of a disinflation program he described as aiming eventually for single-digit inflation, Anadolu Agency reported. Şimşek also said the official target range for 2026 is 13% to 19%, adding that markets expect a rate in the 20s but that he considered the upper end of the official range achievable, according to the same report.
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