Brazil Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied Days Before October 25 Vote

Brazil holds the second round of its presidential election on October 25, 2026. The contest pits President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, of the left-wing Workers' Party against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, of the right-wing Liberal Party, according to Al Jazeera and the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

How the race got here

In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47% of valid votes to Lula's 44.9%, according to Al Jazeera. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold required to win outright, triggering the runoff. Al Jazeera reported that most pre-election polls had expected Lula to finish ahead in the first round, making Bolsonaro's result a surprise; the outlet quoted political analyst Rafael Favetti as saying Bolsonaro benefited from "protest votes" by people focused on defeating Lula rather than on a specific candidate, which Favetti said could limit Bolsonaro's room to grow in the runoff.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2019 to 2023. Al Jazeera and CFR both reported that Jair Bolsonaro cannot run because he is serving a prison sentence of roughly 27 years after being convicted of plotting a coup to stay in power following his 2022 election loss. CFR described him as under house arrest at one point during the case; Al Jazeera's October 4 report described him as imprisoned.

What the latest polls show

According to the Brazil-based outlet Rio Times Online, citing Datafolha's own disclosure, a poll conducted October 20–22 among 2,154 voters put Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula at 50% each once blank and null votes are excluded, with Flávio at 47% and Lula at 46% of the total raw count. Datafolha listed a margin of error of 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, meaning the firm could not identify a statistical leader.

Rio Times Online said the race has tightened over three successive Datafolha polls: Flávio led 52% to 48% on October 8, 51% to 49% on October 15, and the two were even by October 22.

Campaign disputes over social media and state messaging

The Philippines-based Manila Times reported that both campaigns have asked Brazil's electoral court to disqualify the other side. Lula's campaign alleged that Meta engaged in "algorithmic manipulation" that suppressed his content and boosted Bolsonaro's, while Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign countered with a filing accusing Lula of "abuse of power" for distributing government messages through WhatsApp during the campaign.

According to Manila Times, Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta to demonstrate it treated both campaigns equally, under threat of fines the outlet put at roughly $200,000 a day for non-compliance. Meta told the court it had mistakenly deactivated some Lula ads because of a technical error and said it removed more than 700 AI-generated posts that lacked required labels. The same report said Lula also accused the United States government of interfering in the election in Bolsonaro's favor, a claim attributed to Lula and not independently verified in the reporting reviewed.

Why the outcome matters

CFR said the election will shape the direction of Latin America's largest economy and Brazil's foreign-policy alignment between the United States and China, its two biggest trading partners. The council noted that Brazil has faced U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration, which Lula has described as political interference, while Bolsonaro favors closer alignment with Washington and has voiced skepticism toward the BRICS bloc.

Al Jazeera reported that voters identified crime and violence (31%), corruption (20%), the economy (19%) and healthcare (12%) as their top concerns heading into the first round, out of roughly 160 million registered voters.