McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) shares fell to roughly $253, their lowest level since October 2022, in the final week of September 2026, according to Yahoo Finance. The stock was down about 22% for the year and roughly 30% from the all-time high it set in March 2026, marking a seventh consecutive weekly decline, the publication reported.
Why the stock has fallen
The slide traces back to weakening U.S. demand. Second-quarter domestic foot traffic fell 4.6% from a year earlier, with the steepest monthly decline in May, according to data cited by Blockonomi. Global comparable sales grew only 1.3% year-over-year in the same period, with U.S. comparable sales up just 0.8%, Yahoo Finance reported.
CEO Chris Kempczinski said of the second quarter, as quoted by Yahoo Finance, that the company "simply didn't execute at the level we needed to," pointing to the withdrawal of digital promotions and the end of a Buy One, Add One offer as contributing factors.
Blockonomi's analysis listed additional possible pressures on traffic, including elevated fast-food menu pricing, broader adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications among consumers, and questions about whether newer menu items such as the Big Arch sandwich and strawberry-watermelon refreshers have resonated with younger customers.
The investor day that spooked the market
The decline accelerated after McDonald's held its first investor day in nearly three years on September 23, 2026. According to Fortune, Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden presented an updated "NEXT" growth strategy that includes about $8.5 billion in franchisee support running through 2036, with roughly $5 billion of that committed by 2030, mainly through rent relief and capital assistance.
Fortune reported that McDonald's shares fell as much as 6.5% that day; Yahoo Finance separately reported the stock fell about 5% on September 23. Fortune attributed investor unease to concerns about the timing and execution of the plan rather than its scale. Kempczinski said the company expects "industry traffic growth in wholly owned markets will be flat while inflation remains elevated," per Fortune's report.
McDonald's also pushed back its global target of 50,000 restaurants by one year, to 2028, and set a 2030 goal for operating margins in the low- to mid-50% range, according to Yahoo Finance. The company operates more than 46,000 restaurants worldwide, about 95% of them run by independent franchisees serving over 70 million customers daily, Fortune reported.
What the numbers show
Key McDonald's figures cited by sources (late September 2026)| Metric | Figure | Source |
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| Share price level | ~$253, lowest since October 2022 | Yahoo Finance |
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| Decline from March 2026 high | ~30-31% | Yahoo Finance |
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| Year-to-date change | Down ~13-22% (figures vary by article date) | Yahoo Finance / Blockonomi |
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| Q2 global comparable sales | +1.3% year-over-year | Yahoo Finance |
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| Q2 U.S. comparable sales | +0.8% year-over-year | Yahoo Finance |
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| Q2 U.S. foot traffic | -4.6% year-over-year | Blockonomi |
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| Franchisee support plan | $8.5 billion through 2036 (~$5B by 2030) | Fortune |
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| Dividend yield (as cited) | ~3.1-3.2% | Yahoo Finance / Seeking Alpha |
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| P/E multiple (cited) | ~19, vs ~26 ten-year average | Yahoo Finance |
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How analysts and markets are reading it
Several analyst firms cut their price targets on McDonald's after the investor day, Yahoo Finance reported, naming RBC Capital, BMO Capital, Evercore ISI, BTIG and TD Cowen among them; the report did not specify individual analysts or dollar figures. Yahoo Finance put the mean Wall Street price target at $313.39, implying roughly 32% upside at the time of its reporting.
Citi analyst Jon Tower said he believes "Q2 may represent the bottom for both comparable sales performance and the valuation multiple," according to Blockonomi's report, reflecting a view among some analysts that the worst of the sales slowdown may be behind the company.
The Buffett connection
Coverage of the 4-year low has repeatedly referenced Warren Buffett's history with McDonald's. Yahoo Finance reported that Berkshire Hathaway once held a roughly $1.4 billion stake in McDonald's and sold it in the late 1990s. In his 1998 shareholder letter, Buffett described selling the stock as "a very big mistake," per the same report. Buffett has not commented publicly on the stock's 2026 decline, according to the available reporting.
Valuation debate
Seeking Alpha's analysis argued McDonald's trades below its estimated intrinsic value, citing a return on invested capital of about 20% and gross margins around 56%, alongside a dividend track record the piece described as more than 50 consecutive years of increases and a dividend yield of about 3.14%. The same analysis estimated 20%-30% potential upside, while noting headwinds from slower growth among lower-income U.S. customers.
Yahoo Finance's separate analysis noted the stock's price-to-earnings multiple had compressed to about 19, below its 10-year average of roughly 26, which it characterized as a valuation reset tied to the sales slowdown rather than, in its assessment, a deterioration of the underlying brand.
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