ICE Enforcement Fears Are Cutting Sales at Hispanic-Owned Businesses Across the US

Why this is in the news now

On October 23, 2026, Univision's Austin affiliate reported that Hispanic business owners in the city have seen sales fall by 40 to 60 percent on some weekends since the summer, a decline they attribute to fear among customers about operations by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Owners told the outlet they have turned to social media advertising and promotions to try to reach a customer base that is largely Hispanic but increasingly reluctant to leave home.

What Austin business owners describe

The pattern in Austin is not new. In a February 5, 2025 report, public radio station KUT described vendors at markets such as the 812 Outdoor Market and food stands off Highway 183 in South Austin seeing steep drop-offs after a rise in ICE activity. Vendor Francisco Pérez, who sells clothing and huaraches, told KUT his sales fell to about $200 by 2 p.m. on a weekend day, compared with his usual $1,200 to $1,500. Fellow vendor Esmeralda Suárez told KUT that the Hispanic community keeps the local economy running, not just her own stand, while vendor Abdías Domínguez said the drop in immigrant spending and work hurts businesses broadly. A market organizer cited in the same report said a similar slowdown occurred in 2016, when Donald Trump first took office, and that recovery took roughly six months.

Beyond retail: construction and housing in South Texas

The effects described by business owners extend past markets and restaurants. Benny Meléndez, a business owner in South Texas, told Telemundo on October 22, 2026, that fear among workers caused by ICE raids has stalled construction projects and pushed up housing costs that are ultimately passed on to buyers. Meléndez argued immigrant labor is essential to the regional economy; his comments, like those of other business owners cited here, are his own assessment and have not been independently verified against project-level data.

What research on Los Angeles found

A study published July 22, 2026, by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute (LPPI) with Inclusive Action for the City examined nine enforcement sites in Los Angeles County after a June 2025 ICE operation. Using mobility data from 989 businesses plus surveys and focus groups with 75 Latino entrepreneurs, the researchers found 46,000 fewer visits and about $3.16 million in accumulated losses within two weeks at those sites. Extrapolated countywide, the authors estimated potential losses of up to $52 million within two weeks and $114 million over a month of sustained enforcement. Among surveyed owners, all reported fewer customers and sales, 59 percent said revenue fell by more than half, 68 percent temporarily closed or cut hours, and 95 percent still reported financial stress nearly a year later. UCLA researcher Amada Armenta said the disruption extended well beyond the enforcement operations themselves, affecting businesses regardless of the owners' immigration status.

National data: a broader economic shock

A research paper posted on SSRN by economist Zeke Hernandez analyzed 5,388 geocoded ICE raids alongside foot-traffic and spending data for 5.4 million points of interest nationwide between January 2024 and February 2026. It found foot traffic fell 2.73 percent and spending fell 6.18 percent per location per week in metro areas with raids, compared with areas without them — equivalent to roughly 8.1 billion fewer visits and $3 billion to $14 billion in foregone spending over a year. The paper reported that declines occurred regardless of whether a neighborhood had a large immigrant or Hispanic population, and that independent stores were hit harder than chains.

A separate study by the Brookings Institution, published May 29, 2026 by Marcela Escobari, Ian Seyal and Paul Beach, compared employment in 86 US "surge cities" that saw the largest increases in ICE arrests between January and June 2025 with 255 cities that did not. It attributed about 668,000 job losses to the enforcement surges, including an estimated 51,000 to 297,000 jobs held by US-born workers. Construction employment in surge cities fell by about 102,000 jobs, a 2.2 percent decline, according to the study.

How businesses are responding

Responses vary by city. In Austin, owners described shifting toward social media marketing to reach customers directly, according to Univision. In Illinois, the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce distributed 52 grants of $5,000 each to businesses affected by enforcement-related revenue losses, according to the business and economics program Marketplace, which reported on Latino-owned businesses in Los Angeles, Houston and Chicago on August 28, 2026. The same report cited Houston tire shop owner Juan, who has run his business for three decades, describing the current downturn as the worst he has experienced in his time in the country.