Hospital admissions linked to COVID-19 increased in England over late summer and into autumn 2026, according to UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance data. The agency's national flu and COVID-19 surveillance report for week 38 recorded an overall hospital admission rate of 1.20 per 100,000 people, up from 0.81 per 100,000 the previous week.
The increase was most pronounced in London, where the admission rate rose to 1.70 per 100,000 from 0.95 per 100,000 a week earlier, UKHSA figures show. Among people aged 85 and over, the admission rate climbed to 12.43 per 100,000 from 7.08 per 100,000, the report states.
What is driving the rise
UKHSA sequencing data from samples collected between 17 and 30 August 2026 show that a cluster of XFG sub-lineages accounted for more than half of sequenced cases, with XFG.23.1.3 alone making up 46.2% of samples. Other circulating lineages included NB.1.8.1 and XFG.14.8 (12.8% each), JN.1 and TA.1 (7.7% each), and smaller shares of XFG, XFJ and XFZ, according to the report. UKHSA cautioned that low sequencing numbers, particularly within the latest reporting period, limit the accuracy of these prevalence estimates.
The XFG lineage has been referred to in UK media coverage as "Stratus" or the "American variant" because it first emerged in January 2025 and became a dominant strain in the United States before spreading internationally, according to WION's reporting.
Hospital test positivity — the share of patients tested in hospital who returned a positive COVID-19 result — rose to 7.0% on a rolling seven-day average, up from 5.9% the previous week, per the UKHSA report.
Scale of the increase
UKHSA England COVID-19 indicators, week 38 vs previous week (2026)| Indicator | Previous week | Week 38 |
|---|
| Overall hospital admission rate (per 100,000) | 0.81 | 1.20 |
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| London admission rate (per 100,000) | 0.95 | 1.70 |
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| Admission rate, age 85+ (per 100,000) | 7.08 | 12.43 |
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| Hospital PCR positivity | 5.9% | 7.0% |
|---|
The UKHSA report also noted one ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) admission in week 38 for a suspected acute respiratory infection in an adult, without specifying whether it was confirmed as COVID-19.
Despite the week-on-week rise, UKHSA's report describes the overall trend as COVID-19 activity that has increased but remains at low circulation levels, meaning admission rates stay well below the per-100,000 figures recorded during earlier pandemic waves.
Symptoms reported in the current surge
Coverage of the surge has pointed to a broadened symptom profile associated with the current circulating variants, including fever, cough, runny nose, headaches, fatigue and, in some cases, gastrointestinal symptoms, according to WION's reporting. The same report cited doctors advising people to avoid going out if they have a high fever, while saying a cough alone does not necessarily require staying at home, though using a mask was advisable.
Vaccination guidance
Separately from the hospitalisation data, UKHSA opened bookings for the 2026 autumn COVID-19 vaccination programme in England, with jabs available from 1 October 2026. Eligibility is limited to adults aged 75 and over, residents of care homes for older adults, and people aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed under criteria set by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), according to the UKHSA's own guidance. The agency recommends the vaccine be given no earlier than around six months after a person's last dose.
UKHSA's guidance states that vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes was measured at 47% for the three months following vaccination in the previous season's programme, and says vaccination "continues to help protect against severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths arising from COVID-19."
What is not yet known
UKHSA has not published a specific statement attributing the week-38 hospitalisation rise solely to the XFG/Stratus lineage, and its own report flags limited sequencing volumes as a caveat on variant-share estimates. It is also not yet established in the cited sources whether the rise in hospital admissions reflects more severe illness from current variants, waning immunity since previous vaccination or infection, increased indoor mixing as autumn begins, or a combination of these factors — a point UKHSA and other commentators cited in coverage attribute to several possible contributing factors rather than one single cause.
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